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Table 2 Differences between observed and predicted numbers of paediatric asthma inpatient admissions and emergency department attendances by months in 2020 and 2021 compared to pre-pandemic years (2015–2019)

From: Impact of lockdowns on paediatric asthma hospital presentations over three waves of COVID-19 pandemic

Month Number of inpatient admissions and ED attendances
Observed number Predicted number (95%CI) Percentage difference from predicted number (%) (95% CI) Observed number Predicted number (95% CI) Percentage difference from predicted number (%) (95% CI)
  Year 2020 Year 2021 (up to 31st August)
All children aged 2–17 years
 All year 1912 2223.4 (1230.58, 3216.22) −14.01 (−40.55, 55.37) 1452 2087.2 (940.79, 3233.61) −30.43 (−55.1, 54.34)
 JAN 124 139.88 (53.63, 226.14) −11.35 (−45.17, 131.23) 73 143.27 (32.14, 254.41) −49.05 (−71.31, 127.14)
 FEB 227 267.78 (181.48, 354.07) −15.23 (−35.89, 25.08) 234 240.59 (129.35, 351.83) −2.74 (−33.49, 80.91)
 MAR 244 245.44 (159.11, 331.78) −0.59 (−26.46, 53.35) 254 223.34 (111.99, 334.68) 13.73 (−24.11, 126.8)
 APR 60 192.61 (106.23, 278.98) −68.85 (−78.49, −43.52) ** 186 182.83 (71.38, 294.28) 1.73 (−36.79, 160.59)
 MAY 76 248.82 (162.41, 335.24) −69.46 (−77.33, −53.2) *** 337 225.48 (113.92, 337.04) 49.46 (−0.01, 195.82)
 JUN 211 199.03 (112.58, 285.49) 6.01 (−26.09, 87.43) 216 187.29 (75.63, 298.96) 15.33 (−27.75, 185.61)
 JUL 165 137.81 (51.31, 224.31) 19.73 (−26.44, 221.56) 79 140.39 (28.61, 252.16) −43.73 (−68.67, 176.12)
 AUG 198 240.54 (154, 327.08) −17.69 (−39.46, 28.57) 73 218.51 (106.62, 330.4) −66.59 (−77.91, −31.53) ***
 SEP 163 189.23 (102.65, 275.81) −13.86 (−40.9, 58.8)    
 OCT 134 153.17 (66.54, 239.8) −12.52 (−44.12, 101.37)    
 NOV 208 210.91 (124.24, 297.58) −1.38 (−30.1, 67.42)    
 DEC 102 200.01 (113.3, 286.73) −49 (−64.43, −9.97) *    
Children aged 2–5 years
 All year 601 528.6 (−119.32, 1176.52) 440 331.8 (−416.35, 1079.95)
 JAN 41 38.39 (−11.82, 88.59) 16 26.5 (−36.29, 89.29)
 FEB 68 82.93 (32.7, 133.17) −18.01 (−48.94, 107.96) 83 56.89 (−5.98, 119.76)
 MAR 90 68.66 (18.39, 118.92) 31.09 (−24.32, 389.37) 88 46.57 (−16.37, 109.52)
 APR 9 55.07 (4.77, 105.37) −83.66 (−91.46, 88.5) 65 36.74 (−26.29, 99.76)
 MAY 8 57.4 (7.07, 107.73) −86.06 (−92.57, 13.08) 101 37.91 (−25.19, 101.02)
 JUN 70 40.36 (−10, 90.72) 61 25.68 (−37.51, 88.87)
 JUL 51 27.46 (−22.93, 77.86) 12 16.32 (−46.95, 79.59)
 AUG 59 72.7 (22.28, 123.13) −18.85 (−52.08, 164.83) 14 47.19 (−16.16, 110.55)
 SEP 49 46.66 (−3.8, 97.12)    
 OCT 62 33.77 (−16.73, 84.26)    
 NOV 67 44.4 (−6.12, 94.93)    
 DEC 27 52.27 (1.71, 102.84) −48.35 (−73.74, 1478.79)    
Children aged 6–11 years
 All year 977 1176.4 (742.15, 1610.65) −16.95 (−39.34, 31.64) 737 1171.6 (670.17, 1673.03) −37.09 (−55.95, 9.97)
 JAN 50 68.3 (17.98, 118.62) −26.79 (−57.85, 178.11) 39 79.32 (16.95, 141.68) −50.83 (−72.47, 130.06)
 FEB 123 133 (82.64, 183.35) −7.52 (−32.91, 48.83) 113 122.92 (60.48, 185.36) −8.07 (−39.04, 86.85)
 MAR 114 124.24 (73.86, 174.62) −8.24 (−34.71, 54.35) 131 117.02 (54.5, 179.54) 11.95 (−27.04, 140.37)
 APR 30 96.61 (46.2, 147.02) −68.95 (−79.6, −35.06) * 87 98.41 (35.81, 161.01) −11.59 (−45.97, 142.98)
 MAY 50 128.29 (77.84, 178.73) −61.02 (−72.03, −35.77) ** 178 119.76 (57.07, 182.44) 48.64 (−2.43, 211.87)
 JUN 110 112.12 (61.64, 162.59) −1.89 (−32.35, 78.46) 116 108.86 (46.1, 171.62) 6.56 (−32.41, 151.63)
 JUL 79 77.08 (26.57, 127.59) 2.49 (−38.08, 197.35) 39 85.25 (22.41, 148.1) −54.25 (−73.67, 74.06)
 AUG 110 113.47 (62.93, 164.01) −3.06 (−32.93, 74.8) 34 109.78 (46.85, 172.71) −69.03 (−80.31, −27.43) *
 SEP 82 98.65 (48.07, 149.22) −16.88 (−45.05, 70.58)    
 OCT 56 79.11 (28.5, 129.72) −29.21 (−56.83, 96.51)    
 NOV 117 117.52 (66.88, 168.17) −0.44 (−30.43, 74.95)    
 DEC 56 101.35 (50.67, 152.03) −44.75 (−63.17, 10.52)    
Children aged 12–17 years
 All year 334 518.4 (401.75, 635.05) −35.57 (−47.41, −16.86) ** 275 583.8 (449.11, 718.49) −52.89 (−61.73, −38.77) **
 JAN 33 39.61 (27.34, 51.88) −16.68 (−36.39, 20.71) 18 45.92 (32.27, 59.57) −60.8 (−69.78, −44.22) ***
 FEB 36 42.63 (30.35, 54.92) −15.56 (−34.45, 18.62) 38 47.38 (33.71, 61.06) −19.8 (−37.77, 12.74)
 MAR 40 44.48 (32.18, 56.78) −10.08 (−29.55, 24.29) 35 48.39 (34.68, 62.09) −27.67 (−43.63, 0.92)
 APR 21 41.22 (28.91, 53.54) −49.06 (−60.77, −27.37) ** 34 47.38 (33.65, 61.12) −28.25 (−44.37, 1.04)
 MAY 18 50.53 (38.21, 62.86) −64.38 (−71.37, −52.89) *** 58 51.32 (37.55, 65.08) 13.02 (−10.88, 54.46)
 JUN 31 44.13 (31.79, 56.48) −29.76 (−45.11, −2.49) * 39 49.08 (35.28, 62.88) −20.54 (−37.97, 10.53)
 JUL 35 40.48 (28.13, 52.84) −13.55 (−33.76, 24.43) 28 47.92 (34.1, 61.75) −41.57 (−54.66, −17.88) **
 AUG 29 46.65 (34.28, 59.02) −37.84 (−50.87, −15.4) ** 25 50.62 (36.76, 64.48) −50.61 (−61.23, −32) **
 SEP 32 43.79 (31.4, 56.17) −26.92 (−43.03, 1.91)    
 OCT 16 44.06 (31.66, 56.47) −63.69 (−71.67, −49.46) ***    
 NOV 24 45.52 (33.1, 57.94) −47.27 (−58.58, −27.49) ***    
 DEC 19 45.01 (32.57, 57.45) −57.79 (−66.93, −41.67) ***    
  1. The numbers in bold highlight significant differences *p < 0.05
  2. **p < 0.01
  3. ***p < 0.001